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High semiconductor inventory, market adjustment may extend to the first half of 2023

High semiconductor inventory, market adjustment may extend to the first half of 2023

  • Categories:News
  • Time of issue:2022-10-17 10:56
  • Views:

(Summary description)According to news on October 16, with the sluggish demand for electronic terminal products, the supply chain from semiconductors to the system side is facing the problem of high inventory levels, and the destocking process may extend to the first half of next year.

High semiconductor inventory, market adjustment may extend to the first half of 2023

(Summary description)According to news on October 16, with the sluggish demand for electronic terminal products, the supply chain from semiconductors to the system side is facing the problem of high inventory levels, and the destocking process may extend to the first half of next year.

  • Categories:News
  • Time of issue:2022-10-17 10:56
  • Views:
Information

According to news on October 16, with the sluggish demand for electronic terminal products, the supply chain from semiconductors to the system side is facing the problem of high inventory levels, and the destocking process may extend to the first half of next year; TSMC even warned that the greatest impact of inventory adjustments will be in the first half of next year, the pressure of destocking in the IC design industry will jointly affect the demand for IC packaging and testing in the later stage.

Looking ahead to the market situation of electronic technology industry next year, Hong Chunhui, senior industrial consultant and director of the Institute of Industrial Information (MIC) of Taiwan Province Information Policy Commission, pointed out that the demand has not recovered at present, and the inventory problem of different degrees spreads from the downstream to the upstream of the supply chain, and the destocking speed is slow, which may last until the first half of next year.

In terms of inventory turnover days, MIC analysis shows that in the second quarter of this year, compared with the same period of last year, the inventory days of various manufacturers increased by 15.5% to 25.1% on average, among which semiconductor manufacturers increased by 100.1 days, followed by electronic components manufacturers by 98.3 days.

The Taiwan stock team of Allianz Investment Trust said that inventory adjustments began in the third quarter, especially those related to personal computers and notebook computers. It is estimated that inventory adjustments will end in the first half of next year.

Yang Kexin, an industrial analyst at MIC, pointed out that the negative factors of the external environment have not been removed, the consumer market is not buying well, the strength of pulling goods is weak, and the customers' stocking momentum is slowing down. From terminals and system factories to semiconductor chip production and sales supply chain operators, all of them are faced with the problem of excessively high inventory level. Inventory destocking will affect the performance of the semiconductor market next year.

Observing the semiconductor field, MIC analysis, the production and sales of semiconductor chips are limited by the long-term contract mechanism, and repeated and excess orders are often delayed in delivery, which is not conducive to the adjustment of the semiconductor supply chain, and the inventory adjustment is expected to continue until the first half of next year.

Wei Zhejia, president of TSMC, the leading wafer foundry, pointed out a few days ago that factors such as the adjustment of semiconductor industry inventory will affect the overall capacity utilization performance of TSMC from the fourth quarter to the first half of next year. He expects the high point of the semiconductor supply chain inventory to peak in the third quarter of this year. The fourth quarter began to decline, and it is estimated that it will not return to a healthy level until the first half of next year. The greatest impact of inventory adjustment factors will be in the first half of next year.

MediaTek, a major chip design company, estimates that customer inventory adjustments may continue for 2 to 3 quarters; wafer foundry World Advanced recently stated that customers continued to adjust inventories in the fourth quarter, which may extend to the first half of next year.

Observing IC design, memory chips, IC packaging and testing terminals, and channel vendors, Yang Kexin analyzed that at present, the inventory adjustment of semiconductor industry, IC design and memory industry are facing the problems of falling demand and oversupply, and IC designers are facing the pressure of inventory de-stocking, which will jointly affect the demand of IC packaging and testing in the later stage, which is not conducive to the overall operation next year; IC channel dealers also saw a significant increase in inventory turnover days.

As far as products are concerned, the demand for panel driver chips, consumer power management chips (PMIC), general-purpose and consumer microcontrollers (MCU) is weak, and the inventory level of related industries continues to rise.

Among them, Yageo, a large manufacturer of passive components, said that in the fourth quarter, the number of working days decreased due to the long holiday in China in October and the Christmas holidays in Europe and America in December, and the inventory adjustment period of standard products was longer than expected, so it was prudent to deal with its performance and operating outlook.

The US-based foreign legal person pointed out that weak demand in the terminal market and a record high inventory level in the supply chain are the main reasons for the decline in the passive component market. The terminal channel continues to destock, and it is estimated that the adjustment time will take 6 months.

In terms of memory chips, MIC pointed out that the consumer terminal market to server customers all face inventory adjustments to varying degrees, and there is a high degree of uncertainty in the short-term demand of the storage industry.

However, the industry is not completely pessimistic. Tong Zixian, chairman of Pegatron, said recently that the market needs a little time to digest the inventory of related products, and he believes that the digestion can be completed in about two quarters.

Li Peiying, general manager of Nanya Technology, a major memory chip manufacturer, analyzed that some customers are making positive progress in destocking, and demand may pick up. Although the price may continue to fall in the fourth quarter, the decline will converge.

Observing the price trend, MIC pointed out that the chip industry is facing the problem of excessively high inventory turnover days, and is now facing severe inventory de-stocking challenges. If the terminal market situation has not improved, it is hard to avoid the situation of falling price and quantity. Among them, the demand for memory chips is weak, but the manufacturing processes of major manufacturers are turning in, and the production capacity is still on schedule. In the second half of the year, the supply-demand ratio of DRAM will continue to expand, which will inevitably lead to a rapid price drop.

Source: Center News Agency

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